There’s been a ton of punditry about what the Tunisia and Egypt revolutions mean for America, and you can bet there’ll be several tons more.  But I suspect its biggest effect is yet to register, and that is psychological.  Because these two revolutions – achieved through determinedly non-violent action – constitute a radical, positive challenge to the politically manipulated atmosphere of fear and paranoia about Islam.   In fact, as New York Times columnist Roger Cohen put it, 2/11 may be the perfect antidote to 9/11.

Too optimistic?  I think not.  There’s a very good chance that we’re due for a major paradigm shift here in the United States — one that seemed unimaginable just a few weeks ago (and one even a congressman like Peter King, head of the HUAC-like committee due to start ‘examining’ the supposed radicalization of American Muslims (“are you now or have you ever been an American Muslim?”), might have to take into account).

What’s happening all over the Middle East challenges the crude stereotypes of “Arabs = riots.”  Of “Islam = terrorism.”  And above all, of Islam as somehow fundamentally anti-democratic.

These stereotypes run deep.  Think of the scenes shown in the American media from the first week of the Egypt uprising.   A close-up of 200 people prostrated in prayer, excluding the tens of thousands who stood behind them, not praying.   A protestor holding a poster of Mubarak with horns and a Star of David drawn on his forehead – the only one of its kind, it turned out, in the whole square.  Or a few days later,  the replay after replay of Molotov cocktails – “flames lead” being the mantra of TV news – reinforcing the image of rioting Muslims out of control, “the Arab street.”  It was exactly the image Mubarak was aiming for.

Thus the pumping up of the Muslim Brotherhood as a threat by both the Mubarak regime and conservative western pundits, as though the Egyptian protesters were extraordinarily dumb and naïve.  As though they were not highly aware of  how the 1979 Iran revolution was hijacked and perverted.  As though they couldn’t see the fundamentalist regime in Saudi Arabia or the Hamas regime in Gaza.   As though the Brotherhood itself were unanimously stuck in the 1950s mindset of ideologue Sayyid Qutb.  As though the only way to be Muslim was to be a radical fundamentalist.

Thus the surprise in the west at the sophistication of the Tahriris, when “the Arab street” turned out to include doctors and lawyers and women and IT executives (you could practically hear the astonishment:  “you mean there’s Muslim Google executives?”).

Thus the continually stated fear, stoked by the regime and by conservative pundits, that the protestors would shift from nonviolence to violence – that the nonviolence was merely a cover for some assumed innate propensity to violence.

Thus the slowness to realize that the old anti-West sloganism had been superseded, and that this wasn’t about resentment of the west;  in fact that it was about the very things President Obama had talked about in his speech right there in Cairo in June 2009 – about democracy and freedom.

In short, what we heard and saw in those first few days was the modern version of Orientalism:   The idea that the ‘Orient’ – that is, the Middle East (it should come as no surprise here that the geography is as weird as the idea itself) — is an inherently violent, primitive, medieval kind of place.  Or as right-wing Israeli politicians have been endlessly repeating for decades, “a bad neighborhood.”   And that the responsibility of ‘enlightened’ westerners and despotic leaders alike was to keep these benighted people under control.

But as the uprising went on into the second week, something began to change. Nobody at the blog of Seattle’s alternative newspaper The Stranger, for example, which one would have thought the first to support any kind of uprising, even bothered to comment on it at first.  When they began to, it was with their usual weary stance of pseudo-sophisticated cynicism.   But by the day after Mubarak unleashed his goons in Tahrir Square, when the protestors’ response was to turn out in larger numbers than ever, even The Stranger gave in to excited support.   How not, when millions of people stood up to repression and dictatorship in the full knowledge of what they faced if they failed – arrest, torture, and death?   Would you have such courage?  Such determination?

So here’s what I saw here in the States:   more and more Americans abandoning their unconscious Orientalism in favor of stunned admiration.

And that’s the beginning of something new, the very thing Obama declared twenty months ago in Cairo:  respect.

Finally.

Oh my God…

It’s hard to type through the tears.

Egypt, you did it! Egypt, I love you!

You are celebrating right now.  And so are all of us all over the world who’ve been glued to Al Jazeera‘s livestream and to protesters’ Twitter feeds for the past three weeks in stunned admiration, in anxiety and exhilaration, our hearts in our mouths, humbled by the sheer courage and determination of every single Egyptian who risked imprisonment, torture, and (for over 300 people) death.

Thank you, Egypt.  We needed to be reminded of this.  We needed to see that the desire for freedom and justice cannot be squelched.  That it can prevail against the most horrendous odds.  That it can stand up to guns and tanks, to thugs and torturers.  That the power of ideas is stronger than the power of weapons.  That democracy really is the will of the people.

I have no more idea than anyone else what happens from here on.  No idea if the ‘Supreme Military Council’ really does intend to hand over power to an interim civilian government.

But I do suspect that the generals may not have a choice.   Faced with such huge numbers of protesters —  even if accounts of 20 million Egyptians demonstrating in the streets today were exaggerated, even if it was “only” 10 million —  those numbers are doubling, even tripling, as people flood outside in jubilation.   In the face of such numbers, and such widespread support for genuine, total reform, I very much doubt that the military would even dare try to pull a double-cross.

All that is for the usual pundits, however.  For today, Egyptians celebrate.  And most of the world celebrates with them and for them.   Bravo Tunisia!  Bravo Egypt!  You have given notice to all dictatorial regimes — in the Middle East, and indeed worldwide.   You’ve renewed our faith in our own principles.  You have, literally, encouraged us — filled us with the courage so often lacking in our wavering liberal convictions.

Egyptians, there is only one word for what you have done:  magnificent!

The anthem of the uprising?  This song was recorded in Tahrir Square on Friday, and subtitled and posted over the weekend:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPhj5XnPjaU]

It should come as no surprise, however, that Husni Mubarak and Omar Suleiman are tone deaf.  Human Rights Watch lists 297 confirmed killed since January 28.

The magnificence of it!

After two days of concerted attacks by plain-clothes security police and paid goons armed with guns, machetes, whips, batons, and nail-studded maces;  after the coordinated attempt of the Mubarak regime to intimidate protestors, to stop news coverage by arresting and roughing up journalists, and to create the appearance of chaos, this:

The largest protest crowds so far.

And not only in Cairo.  In every Egyptian city.  All calling for Mubarak to step down.  Now.  And all peaceful.

Courage, it turns out, is infectious:  One of the two lead anchors of a government TV station quit to join the protestors, as did the station’s manager, declaring themselves unable to keep up  the hypocrisy;  the head of the Arab League arrived in Tahrir Square to speak to protestors;  even the government turned up in person, when the minister of defense came to ‘review the troops’ and also spoke with protestors, signaling at least a degree of support.

The violence that was designed to keep people away from public protest seems instead to have reinforced their determination.  And here, halfway round the world in Seattle, I am amazed and humbled and inordinately grateful for their courage.

I’m aware that however much I’m feeling, it’s a tiny fraction of what the vast majority of Egyptians are feeling, both in Egypt and abroad — a fraction of what all those living under Middle Eastern dictatorships are feeling as they remain glued, as I am, to the live feeds of news organizations such as Al Jazeera and, amazingly, the most powerful and irrepressible news update of all, Twitter feeds — from rights organizations like Human Rights Watch (@hrw), from reporters like Nicolas Kristof (@NickKristof), and from Egyptian activists on the ground (check my RTs at @accidentaltheo for some of them).

I’m riding an emotional roller coaster of empathy and hope, but it’s the people in the squares and streets of Egypt who are, literally, placing their lives on the line.

Would you?  Would I?  Do we have any idea how much we take for granted what others are willing to die for?

Whatever happens in Egypt in the next few days, watch, follow it closely, spread the news, and be awed — and inspired — by the infectious power of courage.

It’s such a heady proposition:  an end to dictatorial regimes in the Middle East, a newly empowered citizenry, the prospect of real democracy.  As Nick Kristof tweeted early on, Innaharda, ehna kullina Misriyeen — “today, we are all Egyptians.”

El-Baradei says Mubarak has until Friday to get on the plane and leave Egypt.  But it seems he’s not going to fade gently into the good night.  “I wish it could be done so gently,” wrote one commenter on my previous post, rightly sceptical of my optimism.

And now, the thugs.  And the specter, after ten days of exhilarating hope, of heartbreak.

The thugs are in Cairo’s Tahrir Square as I write, described absurdly by the New York Times and other news organizations as “Mubarak supporters.”  The NYT should read its own The Lede blog, which reports that they are plain-clothes police and paid provocateurs, and that ten bucks a day is the going rate.

Nick Kristof details the menace of them:

I’ve been spending hours on Tahrir today, and it is absurd to think of this as simply “clashes” between two rival groups. The pro-democracy protesters are unarmed and have been peaceful at every step. But the pro-Mubarak thugs are arriving in buses and are armed — and they’re using their weapons.

In my area of Tahrir, the thugs were armed with machetes, straight razors, clubs and stones. And they all had the same chants, the same slogans and the same hostility to journalists. They clearly had been organized and briefed. So the idea that this is some spontaneous outpouring of pro-Mubarak supporters, both in Cairo and in Alexandria, who happen to end up clashing with other side — that is preposterous. It’s difficult to know what is happening, and I’m only one observer, but to me these seem to be organized thugs sent in to crack heads, chase out journalists, intimidate the pro-democracy forces and perhaps create a pretext for an even harsher crackdown.

Now Al-Jazeera‘s live feed shows them throwing Molotov cocktails at the anti-Mubarak protestors, and heavy rocks from the rooftops.  They’re beating up journalists, and on the hunt in particular for Al-Jazeera reporters.  There have been several more deaths, and many serious injuries.

Mubarak’s speech last night gave the option of chaos without him (the old apres-moi-le-déluge) or stability with him.  But the only chaos is with him.

I still hope against hope, but the memories I’ve been struggling against rise up threateningly:  Iran’s “green revolution” of 2009 brutally put down;  Tianenmen Square in 1989, brutally put down;  the ousting of the Shah in 1979, taken over by a theocracy and turned into yet another dictatorial regime.

As the call goes out for even larger demonstrations in Egypt on Friday, with a march on the presidential palace, it comes down, it seems, to the military.  Which way will they go?  If the march on the palace does take place, what will they do?

Will they fire on the marchers?  Or will there be a military coup, with the army openly taking over?  (And if so, would the generals assume power themselves, or hand over to a civilian interim government?)   Or will Mubarak — I’m sorry, I can’t help it, I insist on hoping — finally get on the damn plane?

I watch with tears in my eyes, battling the despair creeping up in my heart, wishing, hoping against hope…

It’s a photoshop job, of course, but a perfect one.

Mr Mubarak, your Ben Ali Airlines flight to Saudi Arabia is now boarding.   The ousted Tunisian dictator will meet you on arrival.   We regret that the first-class compartment is fully booked by members of your former regime, and wish you a pleasant and uneventful flight.

[Credit:  anonymous.]

In admiration of the stunning courage of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, and with my heart in my mouth for their success:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hBV0ApIh_4]